Standard+Error+of+Forecast

Standard Error of Forecast (Regression Analysis) (GWU EMSE-271)
Index | Topics (Logical Lectures) | Lectures | Problems | Readings | Nomenclature | Concepts

Standard Error of Forecast (SEF) accounts for both Modeling Error and Sampling Error." - Lattin

"From the variance of the simple linear regression forecast we can immediately observe that the variance of the forecast increases the further away x0 is located from the mean value of the independent variable data xBar.

"No matter how much data we have the linear regression will most likely never exactly model the data behavior and some model error will remain." - EMSE 271, Fall 2009, Slide 229

The Standard Error of Forecast was only used in EMSE Fall 2009 in the Leslie Salt example where one of the independent variables was normalized (LN) and need to be converted back. But, would it be good to use if forecasting with independent variable values farther form the mean, say a 48 inch woman in the women.xls example?


 * Sources:**
 * Analyzing Multivariate Data, by James Lattin, Douglas Carroll and Green ([|Amazon]), page 69
 * EMSE 271, Fall 2009